Uncertainty of the Liberal Peace

In social science there often exists several plausible theories to explain actions, and hence several models which researchers can use in their empirical work. Researchers Barbieri (1996, 1998) and Oneal and Russett (1999) using different measures of trade interdependence (models) have come to disparate conclusions with respect to trade's effect on conflict. Each of their inferences is based on the belief that the variables they select form the " true " model that generates the data. The problem is that theory is unable to indicate whether one model is more appropriate than another, which creates uncertainty over the empirical effects of trade on conflict. To account for uncertainty in model selection I allow for several models by applying Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the study of conflict. Accounting for this uncertainty, I find that trade interdependence does not affect the prediction of militarized conflict, whereas joint democracy continues to reduce conflict.